Theories of Change in Anti-corruption Work: A Tool for Programme Design and Evaluation

This paper, published by U4 Anti-Corruption Resource Centre, which is operated by the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI), presents a five-step methodology for building a theory of change for a programme or project related to anti-corruption, focusing on how and why an initiative works. According to the paper, constructing a theory of change (ToC) enables government and donor staff to identify the logic underpinning their programmes and clarify how interventions are expected to lead to the intended results. It highlights the importance of preconditions, factors that must be in place for the intervention to work as intended, distinguishing between those preconditions that can be addressed by the programme design and those that cannot. The paper provides general and sector-specific guidance based on case studies of programmes in three areas: anti-corruption authorities, civil society work, and public sector reforms. Adding complexity as well as realism, the theory of change methodology is a tool for designing, implementing, and evaluating anti-corruption reforms.

According to the author, this report explores the principles behind good ToCs, the pitfalls, and weaknesses of current ToCs in the anti-corruption sector, and the diversity of ToCs within this sector. It is intended for policy makers and practitioners involved in anti-corruption work. Policy makers can get inspiration from existing ToCs and identify preconditions for policy success. Programme managers will benefit from being able to explain the intervention logic behind their work to colleagues, stakeholders, and funders. Donor representatives and other funders can use ToCs to guide their spending decisions and to select partners who are operating with the desired intervention logic. Evaluators benefit from having relevant ToCs that reveal the assumptions that underpin anti-corruption efforts, and ToCs can also guide development of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) plans.
The manual includes the following sections:

• Section 1: Introduction
• Section 2: Grand theories of change for fighting corruption - this section of the report explores the overall theories, models, and assumptions underlying the fight against corruption.
• Section 3: Methodology: How to build a theory of change
• Section 4: Theory of change analysis of anti-corruption interventions by anti-corruption authorities, civil society and public sector reform initiatives - this section presents examples of how ToC analysis has been applied in anti-corruption work carried out by anticorruption authorities, civil society organisations, and public sector reform initiatives, with case studies from two African countries.
• Section 5: Conclusions